Fear of crime v Reality of crime
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I am always sceptical about crime figures. If there is one area of statistics where you can make figures say what you want them to say then crime statistics has got to be it.
Chris Grayling (Conservative Shadow Home Secretary) was this week reprimanded by the UK Statistics Authority (a Labour quango) for using comparisons of statistics that were not comparable. This is something similar to what the Government also did in 2008 when Jacqui Smith, the then Home Secretary, decided to use selective statistics relating to knife crime. I guess the only thing I can say in Chris Grayling’s defence is that it was not he who manipulated the figures. All he did was publish the figures given to him by the Home Office who should probably not have been even trying to compare what it appears are not comparable.
The trouble with crime figures is that the incidence of crime, although terrible, is not what drives the impression the public have about the place they live. The fear of crime is a much higher driver and the British Crime Survey, which is often cited as measuring the fear of crime, does not claim to do such a thing. It actually measures crime by talking to victims about their experiences. It is also, of course, very convenient for any Government to change the basis of the calculation of the figure so that comparison becomes impossible.
But what about locally in Yeovil and South Somerset. The figures, uch as they are, are not bad and they are probably average for the country. That said the statistics the local Police publish tend to be only a 3 month comparator with the previous year and in my view are probably not very helpful. However, based on these figures the majority of crime is down except in the area of violent crime where there has been a 2% increase between Oct/Nov/Dec 2008 and the same period in 2009.
But then the statistics start to become useless. I could claim that burglaries in Yeovil South, over this period, have risen by 8.3% – a huge amount. In fact this is an increase in the number of crimes from an average per month of 8 to 8.7. So, burgalries are up and I would be right to claim that were the case, in the same way that you could claim they were down if they dropped by half a burglary a month.
But what of the fear of crime? Well, the surveys we have been doing ask people for the issues they believe Yeovil needs to grapple with. Crime and anti-social behaviour always come out high up that list and I still believe the biggest problem is the lack of visible policing on the streets. There are many PCSO’s but it now more usual to see Police stuck behind their desks or the steering wheel of their car.
Policing in the next decade needs to change and Labour have neither the will nor the vision as to how that might happen. Time for change.
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If you had been at SSDC's District Executive Committee last week you would have heard the proposals for raising the police precept. It already dwarfs other elements of the Council Tax Bill (other than SCC) yet the administration wants more, much more.
You would also have heard me say that the Home Office research recognises that the fear of crime can be lowered by actions of the District Council which are much cheaper than extra Officers. (see http://www.crimereduction.homeoffice.gov.uk/toolk...
I suggested that when "testing" to see what an acceptable precept would be, all public service providers ought to ask at the same time through one survey. After all we're famous for two things in South Somerset - liberal democracy which involves the people in decisions and joined up government to keep costs down (see https://www.emapawards.com/emap/system/proweb/sta... BEST LSP 2010).
Then the public could choose one against the other rather than constantly being herded around by the people with vested interests using scare tactics.
I actually agree with you on much of this. I believe that there needs to be a lot more democratic control of the Police force and a whole range of other services. If we are to re-energise local government then more democratic power needs to be given to local government over public services in their area. Some, usually vested interests, do not like this approach but for local people to feel they are getting value for money they need to feel that those they elect have a role in the decision making of local public bodies.
I think it is excellent that local neighbourhood crime committee's help inform priorities for neighbourhood policing but it needs to go further. There are colleagues of mine who want to see directly elected sheriff's who take over the role of both managing the Police and controlling the Crown Prosecution Service in the local area. They would also administer the youth justice system and set sentencing guidelines locally. I am not at the place where I can agree totally with this approach but I do believe that this is moving in the right direction. Incidentally, I believe there is a huge difference between setting the priorities for policing and having an executive role over policing.