This has been a funny recession so far. It has come with quite devastating speed and yet, even now, the indicators are unclear as to its effect or how many will get hurt. Our economy is structured differently from the past (even less industry to get hurt) and is based more and more on people selling services to each other.

What I have found most interesting of recent times is the apparent obsession of Labour and the media to paint the recession as ever bleaker and bleaker, even though the population seems to be determined to undermine their orthodoxy. If the January Sales have been an indication of what it is like when credit is reined in then what could it have been like if the banks had been lending properly.

Take the time to check out the BBC's 'Downturn' pages on their website. There you will find an array of 'Lord Peston of BBC' gloom with a parade of businesses issuing profit warnings, closures and administrations galore, But can you find any of the good news? Can you find the stories about John Lewis, Next or Sainsbury's? Or the dozens of other businesses I speak to who are doing well? Businesses have closed but many of them have tended to be the weak who had been struggling even before recession bit.

So let's just dream for a minute.

What gets us out of a recession is confidence. Let us just imagine that whilst there is a recession the confidence required to make people go out and buy is being shaken by the constant stream of bad media news (because only bad news is news), and the desire of the Government to spin their role in bringing us out of the downturn.
No one knows whether Brown has really done the right thing in economic terms, (although the VAT cut is clearly a failure) only history will tell us that. But what if he can give us the spin that he got it right? What if we come out of the recession as fast we went in? What then for our party and where it goes both politically and with policy?

The Brown hero
If Gordon Brown becomes the hero of the world he likes to paint himself as then how will the next election play out. The polls currently indicate that the PM is doomed, whatever the outcome. I cannot help thinking though that public opinion can change and that Brown is banking on the medicine working and his popularity rising as we come out of the recession. The Conservatives need to carefully align an argument that says that whilst coming out of the recession is good, why did we have to go through the pain. My fear would be that in this instance the 'global problem' mantra might sound persuasive.
In this scenario the party will really have to work very hard to mop up Lib Dem swing votes and hope that the new Northern Ireland accord brings a positive benefit.

The Brown villain
There is the chance that the electorate has become so highly sophisticated that Brown is a villain whatever happens. But the problem then becomes the chance that the Conservatives become complacent. It would be good to think there could be a by-election soon that will test the polls to see what the real effect has been. In the event that Brown is the villain then the focus would switch to the future of Labour and who might come after him. Would Brown do a Blair and go into the next election saying I will only stay on for X years? Would that work to get him extra time in the job he has always wanted to do?

The Brown history
Could it be that his time is just up, that history is against him? Is there a chance that whatever the outcome for the economy then Brown is finished. It would be foolish to think that this is the case and unlike Labour in 1992 the Conservative party has to recognise that it has to work harder than it would have had to a year ago to fight for every seat and every vote. To not do this would allow Labour back in and the consequences for the Conservative party would be catastrophic.

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Something needs to be done about the future of Royal Mail. This is not about the future of Post Offices, although the need for Royal Mail to make savings cannot be separated from the costs of running the offices. As the report that Lord Mandy has received states the RM has very poor relations with its Unions and the fact is that even this week there is likely to be industrial action. But also, the simple fact is that the Royal Mail does not do its job at all well. My post is often late or even lost and I have no certainty that things I post get there on time, if at all.

But equally the Royal Mail should have been innovating. Royal Mail used to ( many years ago) run communications. The modern British Telecom came out of the Post Office service. When the internet came along the RM should have been at the forefront of developing an high quality internet service as it was the traditional post that would have been the biggest loser with the rise of email.

However, it now seems that the Labour party are looking to part-privatise the Royal Mail. Putting aside the divisions this is going to cause in the Labour party  - how ironic that it is the hated Lord Mandy is proposing this - I just wonder whether it might be too late.

BBC NEWS | Politics | Labour MP quits government post:

Labour MP Jim McGovern has resigned from the government in protest at plans to part-privatise Royal Mail. Mr McGovern, MP for Dundee West, had been parliamentary private secretary to business minister Pat McFadden, whose department is overseeing the changes.

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Can lightening really strike twice in the same place? The frightening story of this abused "Baby P" in Haringey is a worrying signal that no matter what protections you might put in place to protect children if there are those intent on doing them harm then they will do so.

After the previous incidence it is said that reforms were carried out to try and ensure there was a strong legal framework for removing children into care when they were under threat. I believe in Haringey, following the death of Victoria Climbie, there was a wholesale change in the way the Council went about business. However, it is remarkable that last year, in the UK, one child under ten died every week and that, if the system is working well, we do not hear of more cases where parents are complaining about their children being take away without just cause.

There are two aspects that I would like to hear answers to:

• why is it that the the identity of the man responsible for this is being kept secret?
• why has the head of department responsible not been sacked and what is going to happen to Margaret Hodge? My recollection is that Hodge was connected with child abuse allegations in Islington and then became the Minister responsible for safeguarding children until the most recent reshuffle. She would have had quite a role in shaping the protections that responded to the Climbie investigation.

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Can I commend to you this important campaign - Help for Heroes. It is vitally important that all our armed forces are aware that we do not remember the sacrifices they make just once a year but every time we hear of the challenges they face in whatever theatre of war they are operating.

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I have just returned from the Remembrance Day services at the Yeovil war memorial and St. John's Church.

As ever, for a town with a military base, there was a good turnout.

I am always struck that the act of memorial, and learning from the sacrifice of so many, has always to be held against the fact that very many of those who served do all they can to forget the horrors of what they experienced. For them. losing their companions is a painful but fitting memorial, even though it brings back the pain of conflict and the raw horror of war.

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Apart from saying 'I am bored' I have not mentioned much about the row over the BBC. David Cameron has gone to press with The Sun saying the BBC has got to change its culture if it thinks what happened is aacceptable. The Shadow Culture Secretary has gone further and come up with three things that have to change.

• The BBC must top chasing rankings as a measure of success
• They must do something about executive and presenter pay. There are fifty executives that earn more than the Prime Minister and Ross is paid far too much
• They should change a culture that believes that the broadcast that went out was acceptable

My view is that the problem is deeper rooted and there are two issues. Firstly, there must be a view that the entire culture of the BBC needs to change. The BBC has the title 'Public Service' attached to the funding they receive via the licence fee. One would have thought that a public service broadcaster would be closer to the views of its viewers and would have known that what they broadcast was unacceptable - the culture of money and ratings chasing clearly distorts that perspective.

However, I also believe we need to discus the licence fee again. The fact the licence fee exists is a fig leaf to a pretence that somehow the BBC is independent from Government. I am beginning to wonder whether in fact it would be better if the BBC was funded from general taxation and the licence fee was abolished. Given it is Government that dictates how much is collected anyway I can believe it would make that much difference and if the BBC Trust was a bit more robust then it could claim independence of governance from Government.

Which brings me to the BBC trust. The trust has not existed long but it has already proven itself useless. But, it is not structurally useless, it is merely being Chaired by a person who is clearly not up to the job. I came across Sir Michael Lyons when he undertook a review of local government a few years back. His three year enquiry contributed absolutely nothing to the future of loal government and his role as a former Labour Councillor will clearly give an insight into where his positioning might be in such a media sensitive position. I have nothing against him being a Labour supporter - after all we all vote for someone and politicians have a broad range of skills to add to organisations- but I really do believe that in this position there should be total and visible independence.

Finally, I think we hould acknowledge the irony of one of the globes major media organisations not knowing how to handle the media in a crisis

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What now? We'll, I have always argued that I want to see elected Police Chiefs who might not necessarily come from the ranks. But for as long as we have the system we do I believe we need a Police Chief who spends les time on PR and more on ensuring the efficient operation of our force - something I believe had been lacking in recent times.

But before we get to that we clearly have an unneccesarily odd system where the Mayor has a quasi role in the appointment. Maybe the time has come for the Mayor/Police Authority to have complete control of the appointment of London'stop policeman and the Home Secretary have a seperate appointment for the terrorist role. The US have a national (FBI) and a local police force and just maybe we need the same.

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Blogging has been a nit light the past few weeks. mainly through work pressures and awful lot going on. Now the political party season is here things should start returning to normal.

Some weeks ago I thought the position for Brown looked bad but that did not mean I expected much too happen and I expected him to cling on. However, as time goes on and the pressure builds you begin to wonder what might happen next. Could this really be the beginning of the end?

There is a part of me that wonders whether Brown's titanic anger might turn itself on his own party if they do try to oust him. How much would the wounded beast 'damn them all' rather than take away the prize he has treasured for so long.

Are there there constitutional circumstances where a Prime Minister can ask the Queen to call a General Election even if his party do not want it? Now that would be a fit of pique.

BBC NEWS | Politics | Minister quits in Brown protest

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Today is the third anniversary of the bombings on the London tube.

"sileo in pacis quod orior oriri ortus in palma"

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